Ukwenyuka okuqinile kwentengo yezinto zebhethri kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2021 kubangela ukuqagela mayelana nokucekelwa phansi kwesidingo noma ukubambezeleka, futhi kuholele enkolelweni yokuthi izinkampani zezimoto zingashintsha izintandokazi zezimoto zazo zikagesi.

Iphakethe elinezindleko eziphansi ngokwesiko bekuyi-lithium-iron-phosphate, nomaI-LFP.I-Tesla ibilokhu isebenzisa i-LFP kumamodeli ayo ezinga lokungena enziwe eChina kusukela ngo-2021. Abanye abakhiqizi bezimoto abafana noVolkswagen noRivian nabo bamemezele ukuthi bazosebenzisa i-LFP kumamodeli ashibhile.

I-Nickel-cobalt-manganese, noma i-NCM, amabhethri angenye inketho.Badinga inani elifanayo le-lithium ukuzeI-LFP, kodwa ihlanganisa i-cobalt, ebizayo futhi inqubo yayo yokukhiqiza iyimpikiswano.

Intengo yensimbi ye-Cobalt ikhuphuke ngo-70% ngonyaka.I-Nickel ibone isiyaluyalu sakamuva okulandela ukuminya okufushane kwe-LME.Intengo ye-nickel yezinyanga ezintathu ihweba ngebanga langaphakathi lezinsuku lika-$27,920-$28,580/mt ngoMeyi 10.

Ngaleso sikhathi, amanani e-lithium akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-700% kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2021, okuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwezintengo zephakethe lebhethri.
Ngokusho kwe-S&P Global Market Intelligence, izindleko zebhethri lensimbi yaseShayina ngoMashi zikhuphuke ngo-580.7% ngonyaka kumabhethri e-LFP ngedola ngekhilogremu, zikhuphuke zafinyelela cishe ku-$36/kwh.Amabhethri e-NCM akhuphuke ngo-152.6% ngesikhathi esifanayo aya ku-$73-78/kwh ngoFebhuwari

"Indlelai-lithiuminyuke intengo ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezedlule.Kuyisaphulelo esincane kunalokho obungakulindela [ngokumelene ne-NCM] futhi uma usuphonsa izici zokusebenza kuyisinqumo esinzima kakhulu obekungaba yiso.Ungase ufune ukunikeza ukusebenza okuthile ngezindleko, kodwa akushibhile kakhulu kulezi zinsuku.” kusho umthengisi we-cobalt hydroxide.

"Kwakukhona ukukhathazeka, ngempela, ngoba izindleko ze-LFP zazibeka engcupheni enkulu kakhulu engxenyeni eqondiswe kuyo, okungamabhethri abiza kancane," kuvumelana nomthombo womkhiqizi we-lithium.

“Azikho ezinye izindlela ezisobala zamabhethri asebenzisa i-nickel (lawo aqukethe izingxenye ze-nickel eziyi-8 noma ngaphezulu) esikhathini esifushane ukuya kwelimaphakathi.Ukubuyela kumabhethri e-NMC ane-nickel ephansi kubuyisela ukukhathazeka ngokusetshenziswa kwe-cobalt, kuyilapho amabhethri e-LFP awakwazi ukufanisa ngokugcwele ukusebenza kwebanga futhi anezici ezingezinhle zokushisa eziphansi uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri asebenzisa i-nickel,” u-Alice Yu, umhlaziyi ophezulu, we-S&P Global Market Intelligence. .

Nakuba i-chemistry ekhethwayo e-China ibhethri ye-LFP, ngokuvamile kucatshangwa ukuthi i-NCM izodlala ingxenye enkulu ezimakethe ze-EU - lapho abathengi bekhetha izimoto ezibayisa ezweni lonke noma ezwenikazi ngamashaji amancane.

“Uma sibheka ukuklama izitshalo zebhethri, sidinga ukuhlola ukuguquguquka.Njengamanje kunokulingana kwamanani phakathi kwe-LFP ne-NCM.Uma i-LFP iba ​​ishibhile kakhulu futhi mhlawumbe singabeka ukukhiqizwa kuqala, kodwa okwamanje kufanele sikhiqize i-NCM ngoba iwumkhiqizo ophambili.” kusho i-OEM yezimoto.

I-OEM yesibili yezimoto inanela lokho kuphawula, “Amabhethri e-LFP azoba khona lapha ezimotweni ezisezingeni lokungena, kodwa angamukelwa ezimotweni eziphambili”.

Isici somkhawulo

Ukunikezwa kwe-lithium kusalokhu kuwukukhathazeka okukhulu kwemakethe ye-EV futhi okuthile okungamisa noma iyiphi inkampani ukushintshela ku-LFP kalula.

Ucwaningo oluvela ku-S&P Global Commodity Insights lubonisa ukuthi uma zonke izimayini ze-lithium ezisepayipini zifika ku-inthanethi ngesikhathi esihlongozwayo, nezicaciso ezifanele zezinto zebanga lebhethri, kusazoba nokushoda kuka-220,000 mt ngo-2030, kucatshangwa ukuthi isidingo sifinyelela ku-2 million mt ekupheleni kweshumi leminyaka.

Iningi labakhiqizi be-lithium baseNtshonalanga banengxenye enkulu kakhulu yomkhiqizo wabo obhukwe ngaphansi kwezinkontileka zesikhathi eside, futhi abaguquli baseShayina bebematasa ngazo zombili izidingo zenkontileka zesikhathi eside nezesikhathi eside.

"Kunezicelo eziningi [zendawo], kodwa asinazo izinto ezitholakalayo okwamanje," kusho umthombo womkhiqizi we-lithium.“Sinamavolumu atholakalayo kuphela uma ikhasimende linenkinga ethile, noma likhansela ukuthunyelwa ngesizathu esithile, ngaphandle kwalokho konke kubhukhiwe,” wengeza.

Ukukhathazeka okwandayo mayelana ne-lithium, nezinye izinsimbi zebhethri, okuba yisici esibeka umkhawulo ekuqhubekiseni ukusetshenziswa kwe-EV kuholele ekutheni abakhiqizi bezimoto bangene kakhulu ohlangothini oluphezulu lwemboni.

I-General Motors izotshala imali ekuthuthukisweni kwephrojekthi ye-lithium ye-Controlled Thermal Resources' Hell's Kitchen eCalifornia.I-Stellantis, i-Volkswagen ne-Renault zihlanganyele ne-Vulcan Resources ukuze zivikele izinto ezibonakalayo kuphrojekthi ye-Zero Carbon e-Germany.

Enye indlela ye-sodium-ion

Njengoba kunikezwe ukushoda okulindelekile kokunikezwa kwe-lithium, i-cobalt ne-nickel, imboni yebhethri ibilokhu ibheka ezinye izindlela.Amabhethri e-sodium-ion abhekwa njengenye yezinketho ezithembisa kakhulu.

I-sodium-ion ngokuvamile izosebenzisa i-carbon ku-anode nezinto ezivela esigabeni esaziwa ngokuthi i-Prussian Blue ku-cathode.Kukhona “uchungechunge lwezinsimbi ezingasetshenziswa kuPrussian Blue, futhi luzohluka kuye ngenkampani,” ngokusho kukaVenkat Srinivasan, umqondisi we-Argonne Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science (ACCESS) ese-US.

Inzuzo enkulu ye-sodium-ion yizindleko zayo eziphansi zokukhiqiza, kusho imithombo.Ngenxa yobuningi besodium emhlabeni, lawa maphakethe ebhethri angabiza cishe ngo-3% -50% ngaphansi kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion.Ukuminyana kwamandla kuqhathaniswa ne-LFP.

I-Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), enye yezinkampani ezinkulu ezikhiqiza amabhethri eChina, yethule ngonyaka odlule isizukulwane sayo sokuqala sebhethri le-sodium-ion, kanye nesixazululo sephakethe lebhethri le-AB, elibonise ukuthi likwazi ukuhlanganisa amaseli e-sodium-ion kanye ne-lithium-ion. amaseli kuphakethe elilodwa.Inqubo yokukhiqiza kanye nemishini yebhethri ye-sodium-ion iyahambisana nebhethri ye-lithium-ion yamanje, kusho i-CATL.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba i-sodium-ion ifinyelele esikalini esibalulekile sokuhweba, ezinye izinto ezikhathazayo zidinga ukubhekwa.

Kusenokuthuthukiswa okuthile okufanele kufinyelelwe ku-electrolyte nasezinhlangothini ze-anode.

Uma kuqhathaniswa nebhethri elisekelwe ku-LFP, i-sodium-ion inamandla ekushajweni, kodwa ibuthakathaka ekushajweni.

Isici esikhulu esikhawulelayo ukuthi lokhu kusesesikhathini esithile kusukela ekutholakaleni ezingeni lezohwebo.

Ngokufanayo, izigidigidi zamaRandi zokutshalwa kwezimali zenziwe ku-lithium-ion supply chain ngokusekelwe kumakhemikhali anothe nge-lithium kanye ne-nickel.

"Ngokuqinisekile sizobheka i-sodium-ion kodwa kudingeka siqale sigxile kubuchwepheshe obuvele bukhona futhi silethe isitshalo ku-inthanethi," kusho omunye umenzi webhethri.