Inkinga yamandla eyabangelwa yimpi e-Ukraine ingase ibe yingozi kakhulu kwezomnotho eRussia kanye nase-European Union kangangokuthi ekugcineni ingancipha kokubili njengamandla amakhulu emhlabeni. Umphumela walolu shintsho—olungakaqondakali kahle—ukuthi sibonakala sishesha siye ezweni elinokuguquguquka kwengqondo okubangelwa yizizwe ezimbili ezinamandla amakhulu: iShayina kanye ne-United States.

Uma sibheka isikhathi sangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi sokubusa kwe-US okulinganayo njengesihlala kusukela ngo-1991 kuya enkingeni yezezimali ka-2008, khona-ke singaphatha isikhathi kusukela ngo-2008 kuya kuFebhuwari walo nyaka, lapho iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine, njengesikhathi se-quasi-multipolarity. I-China yayikhuphuka ngokushesha, kodwa ubukhulu bomnotho we-EU—nokukhula ngaphambi kuka-2008—kwayinika isimangalo esisemthethweni njengenye yamandla amakhulu emhlabeni. Ukuvuselelwa komnotho weRussia kusukela cishe ngo-2003 kanye namandla ezempi aqhubekayo kwakubeka ebalazweni futhi. Abaholi kusukela eNew Delhi kuya eBerlin kuya eMoscow badumisa i-multipolarity njengesakhiwo esisha sezindaba zomhlaba.

Ingxabano yamandla eqhubekayo phakathi kweRussia neNtshonalanga isho ukuthi isikhathi se-multipolarity sesiphelile. Nakuba izikhali zenuzi zeRussia ngeke ziphele, izwe lizothola umlingani omncane emkhakheni wethonya oholwa yiShayina. Umthelela omncane kakhulu wenkinga yamandla emnothweni wase-US, okwamanje, uzoba yinduduzo ebandayo eWashington ngokwendawo yezepolitiki: Ukuphela kweYurophu ekugcineni kuzokwehlisa amandla e-United States, obekulokhu kubalwa izwekazi njengomngane.

Amandla ashibhile ayisisekelo somnotho wanamuhla. Nakuba umkhakha wamandla, ngezikhathi ezivamile, uyingxenye encane kuphela ye-GDP iyonke yezomnotho eziningi ezithuthukile, unomthelela omkhulu ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali kanye nezindleko zokufaka kuzo zonke izinhlaka ngenxa yokusetshenziswa kwawo kabanzi.

Amanani kagesi negesi yemvelo aseYurophu manje asesondele ngokuphindwe kayishumi ngokwesilinganiso sawo somlando eminyakeni eyishumi eyandulela u-2020. Ukwanda okukhulu kwalo nyaka cishe kungenxa yempi yaseRussia e-Ukraine, yize yabhebhethekiswa ukushisa okukhulu nesomiso kuleli hlobo. Kuze kube ngu-2021, iYurophu (kufaka phakathi i-United Kingdom) yayithembele ekuthengisweni kweRussia cishe ngamaphesenti angama-40 egesi yayo yemvelo kanye nesabelo esikhulu sezidingo zayo zikawoyela namalahle. Ezinyangeni ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwayo i-Ukraine, iRussia yaqala ukulawula izimakethe zamandla futhi yenyusa amanani egesi yemvelo, ngokusho kwe-International Energy Agency.

Amandla aseYurophu abiza cishe amaphesenti amabili e-GDP ngezikhathi ezijwayelekile, kodwa akhuphuke afinyelela kumaphesenti ayi-12 ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani. Izindleko eziphakeme zalokhu kusho ukuthi izimboni eziningi kulo lonke elaseYurophu ziyanciphisa ukusebenza noma zivalwe ngokuphelele. Abakhiqizi be-aluminium, abakhiqizi bakamanyolo, abancibilikisi bensimbi, kanye nabenzi bezingilazi basengozini enkulu yamanani aphezulu egesi yemvelo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi iYurophu ingalindela ukwehla okukhulu komnotho eminyakeni ezayo, yize izilinganiso zomnotho zokuthi kujule kangakanani ziyahlukahluka.

Ukuze kucace: IYurophu ngeke ibe mpofu. Futhi abantu bayo ngeke baqandeke ebusika. Izinkomba zokuqala zisikisela ukuthi izwekazi lenza umsebenzi omuhle wokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo nokugcwalisa amathangi alo okugcina izinto ebusika. IJalimane neFrance ngayinye inezikhungo ezinkulu zikahulumeni—ngezindleko ezinkulu—ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kwabathengi bamandla.

Kunalokho, ingozi yangempela izwekazi elibhekene nayo ukulahlekelwa ukuncintisana kwezomnotho ngenxa yokukhula komnotho okuhamba kancane. Igesi eshibhile yayincike ekukholelweni okungamanga ekuthembekeni kweRussia, futhi lokho sekuphelile unomphela. Imboni izozivumelanisa kancane kancane, kodwa lokho kuguquka kuzothatha isikhathi—futhi kungaholela ekushintsheni komnotho okubuhlungu.

Lezi zinkinga zomnotho azinalutho oluhlobene noshintsho lwamandla ahlanzekile noma impendulo ephuthumayo ye-EU ekuphazamisekeni kwemakethe okubangelwe yimpi e-Ukraine. Esikhundleni salokho, zingalandelwa ezinqumweni zangaphambilini zaseYurophu zokuthuthukisa ukulutheka kwamafutha aseRussia, ikakhulukazi igesi yemvelo. Nakuba izinto ezivuselelekayo njengelanga nomoya ekugcineni zingase zithathe indawo yamafutha aluhlaza ekuhlinzekeni ugesi oshibhile, azikwazi ukuthatha indawo yegesi yemvelo kalula ukuze zisetshenziswe ezimbonini—ikakhulukazi njengoba igesi yemvelo exubile (i-LNG) engeniswa kwamanye amazwe, okuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi enye indlela esikhundleni segesi yepayipi, ibiza kakhulu. Imizamo yabanye osopolitiki yokusola ushintsho lwamandla ahlanzekile ngesiphepho somnotho esiqhubekayo ayifaneleki.

Izindaba ezimbi ngeYurophu zandisa umkhuba okhona kakade: Kusukela ngo-2008, isabelo se-EU emnothweni womhlaba wonke sehlile. Nakuba i-United States yalulama ngokushesha ekuwohlokeni okukhulu komnotho, iminotho yaseYurophu yalwa kanzima kakhulu. Eminye yayo yathatha iminyaka ukuthi ikhule kabusha ifinyelele emazingeni angaphambi kwenhlekelele. Okwamanje, iminotho e-Asia yayiqhubeka nokukhula ngezinga elimangalisayo, iholwa umnotho omkhulu waseShayina.

Phakathi kuka-2009 no-2020, izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka ye-EU lifinyelele ku-0.48% kuphela, ngokusho kweBhange Lomhlaba. Izinga lokukhula kwe-US esikhathini esifanayo lalicishe liphindwe kathathu, lilinganiselwa ku-1.38% ngonyaka. Futhi iShayina ikhule ngesivinini esikhulu samaphesenti angu-7.36 ngonyaka esikhathini esifanayo. Umphumela ophelele uwukuthi, ngenkathi isabelo se-EU se-GDP yomhlaba wonke sasisikhulu kunese-United States kanye neShayina ngo-2009, manje sesiphansi kakhulu kwezintathu.

Muva nje ngo-2005, i-EU ibingamaphesenti angama-20 e-GDP yomhlaba wonke. Izobala ingxenye nje yaleyo mali ekuqaleni kwawo-2030 uma umnotho we-EU wehla ngamaphesenti ama-3 ngo-2023 nango-2024 bese iqala kabusha izinga layo lokukhula ngaphambi kobhubhane elingamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngonyaka kuyilapho lonke izwe likhula ngamaphesenti ama-3 (isilinganiso somhlaba sangaphambi kobhubhane). Uma ubusika buka-2023 bubanda futhi ukwehla komnotho okuzayo kubonakala kukhulu, isabelo se-GDP yomhlaba wonke saseYurophu singase sehle ngokushesha okukhulu.

Okubi nakakhulu, iYurophu ingemuva kakhulu kwamanye amandla ngokwempi. Amazwe aseYurophu abelokhu echitha imali eningi kwezempi amashumi eminyaka futhi awakwazi ukuvala kalula lokhu kuntuleka kokutshalwa kwezimali. Noma yikuphi ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwezempi kwaseYurophu manje—ukuze kulungiswe isikhathi esilahlekile—kuza ngezindleko zamathuba kwezinye izingxenye zomnotho, okungase kudale ukwehla okukhulu ekukhuleni futhi kuphoqe izinqumo ezibuhlungu mayelana nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwezenhlalo.

Isimo saseRussia sinzima kakhulu kunese-EU. Yiqiniso, izwe lisathola imali engenayo enkulu ngokuthengisa kwalo uwoyela negesi kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi e-Asia. Nokho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, umkhakha kawoyela negesi waseRussia cishe uzowa—ngisho nangemva kokuba impi yase-Ukraine isiphelile. Umnotho waseRussia wonke uyahlupheka, futhi izijeziso zaseNtshonalanga zizophuca umkhakha wezamandla wezwe ubuchwepheshe bobuchwepheshe kanye nezimali zokutshalwa kwezimali ezidinga kakhulu.

Manje njengoba iYurophu isilahlekelwe yithemba eRussia njengomhlinzeki wamandla, isu elilodwa kuphela elisebenzayo leRussia ukuthengisa amandla ayo kumakhasimende ase-Asia. Ngokujabulisayo, i-Asia ineminotho eminingi ekhulayo. Ngokudabukisayo ngeRussia, cishe yonke inethiwekhi yayo yamapayipi kanye nengqalasizinda yamandla okwamanje yakhelwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu futhi ayikwazi ukujika kalula empumalanga. Kuzothatha iminyaka nezigidigidi zamaRandi ukuthi iMoscow ihlele kabusha ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamandla—futhi kungenzeka ithole ukuthi ingajika kuphela ezimweni zezimali zaseBeijing. Ukuthembela emkhakheni wamandla eShayina cishe kuzodlulela kwezepolitiki ezibanzi, ubambiswano lapho iRussia izithola idlala indima encane kakhulu. Ukuvuma kukaMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin ngoSepthemba 15 ukuthi uzakwabo waseShayina, uXi Jinping, wayene "mibuzo nokukhathazeka" mayelana nempi e-Ukraine kusikisela umehluko wamandla osuvele ukhona phakathi kweBeijing neMoscow.

 

Ukuntuleka kokudla—kanye namanani aphezulu alokho okutholakalayo—kungabangela inkinga enkulu kulezi zifunda kunamandla. Impi e-Ukraine yonakalise isivuno kanye nemizila yezokuthutha yenani elikhulu likakolweni nokunye okusanhlamvu. Abathengisi abakhulu bokudla njengeGibhithe banesizathu sokukhathazeka ngezingxabano zezombusazwe ezivame ukuhambisana nokwenyuka kwezindleko zokudla.

Iphuzu elibalulekile kwezombusazwe zomhlaba ukuthi siya ezweni lapho iShayina ne-United States kuyimibuso emibili emikhulu yomhlaba. Ukuhlukaniswa kweYurophu ezindabeni zomhlaba kuzolimaza izintshisekelo zase-US. IYurophu—ikakhulukazi—iyintando yeningi, iwubungxowankulu, futhi izibophezele emalungelweni abantu kanye nokuhleleka kwamazwe ngamazwe okusekelwe emithethweni. I-EU iphinde yahola umhlaba ngemithethonqubo ephathelene nokuphepha, ubumfihlo bedatha, kanye nemvelo, iphoqa izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe ukuthi zithuthukise ukuziphatha kwazo emhlabeni wonke ukuze kuhambisane nezindinganiso zaseYurophu. Ukuhlukaniswa kweRussia kungase kubonakale kukuhle kakhulu ngezintshisekelo zase-US, kodwa kuthwala ingozi yokuthi uPutin (noma umlandeli wakhe) uzosabela ekulahlekelweni kwesithunzi nesithunzi sezwe ngokugxeka ngezindlela ezibhubhisayo—mhlawumbe ngisho nezimbi kakhulu.

Njengoba iYurophu ilwela ukuzinzisa umnotho wayo, i-United States kufanele iyisekele uma kungenzeka, okuhlanganisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ezinye zezinsiza zayo zamandla, njenge-LNG. Lokhu kungaba lula ukukusho kunokukwenza: AbaseMelika abakavuki ngokugcwele ezindleleni zabo zamandla ezikhuphukayo. Amanani kaphethiloli wemvelo e-United States akhuphuke kathathu kulo nyaka futhi angakhuphuka njengoba izinkampani zase-US zizama ukufinyelela izimakethe zokuthumela ngaphandle ze-LNG ezinenzuzo eYurophu nase-Asia. Uma amanani kaphethiloli enyuka kakhulu, osopolitiki base-US bazoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokunciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukuze kulondolozwe ukuthengeka kwamandla eNyakatho Melika.

Njengoba bebhekene neYurophu ebuthaka, abenzi bezinqubomgomo base-US bazofuna ukuhlakulela umbuthano obanzi wabalingani bezomnotho abanomqondo ofanayo ezinhlanganweni zamazwe ngamazwe njenge-United Nations, i-World Trade Organisation, kanye ne-International Monetary Fund. Lokhu kungasho ukuthandana okukhulu kwamandla aphakathi njenge-India, iBrazil, ne-Indonesia. Noma kunjalo, iYurophu ibonakala kunzima ukuyithatha indawo yayo. I-United States ibilokhu izuza amashumi eminyaka ezithakazelweni zezomnotho kanye nokuqondana kwayo nezwekazi. Ngezinga lapho umnotho waseYurophu uncipha khona manje, i-United States izobhekana nokumelana okunzima nombono wayo wohlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe oluthanda intando yeningi.