Inkinga yamandla edalwe yimpi yase-Ukraine ingase ibonakale ilimaza kakhulu umnotho eRussia kanye ne-European Union kangangokuthi ingagcina inciphe kokubili njengamandla amakhulu emhlabeni.Okushiwo yilolu shintsho—okusaqondwa kalufifi—ukuthi sibonakala singena ngokushesha emhlabeni onama-bipolar obuswa imibuso emikhulu emibili: iChina ne-United States.

Uma sibheka umzuzu wangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi wokubusa kwe-Unipolar yase-US njengehlala kusukela ngo-1991 kuya enkingeni yezezimali ka-2008, singase siphathe isikhathi esisuka ku-2008 kuya kuFebhuwari walo nyaka, lapho iRussia ihlasela i-Ukraine, njengenkathi ye-quasi-multipolarity. .I-China yayikhula ngokushesha, kodwa ubukhulu bomnotho we-EU-kanye nokukhula ngaphambi kuka-2008-kuyinikeze isimangalo esisemthethweni njengomunye wamandla amakhulu emhlabeni.Ukusimama komnotho waseRussia kusukela ngo-2003 kanye namandla aqhubekayo ezempi kukubeka ebalazweni futhi.Abaholi abasuka eNew Delhi baya eBerlin baya eMoscow bancome i-multipolarity njengesakhiwo esisha sezindaba zomhlaba.

Ukungqubuzana kwamandla okuqhubekayo phakathi kweRussia naseNtshonalanga kusho ukuthi isikhathi sokuhlukahlukana manje sesiphelile.Nakuba izikhali zenuzi zaseRussia zingeke ziphele, leli zwe lizozithola selinguzakwethu omncane endaweni yethonya eliholwa yiChina.Umthelela omncane wenkinga yamandla emnothweni wase-US, okwamanje, uzoba induduzo ebandayo eWashington geopolitically: Ukubuna kweYurophu ekugcineni kuzokwehlisa amandla e-United States, osekuyisikhathi eside ibala izwekazi njengomngane.

Amandla ashibhile ayisisekelo somnotho wesimanje.Nakuba umkhakha wezamandla, ngezikhathi ezijwayelekile, ubamba ingxenye encane kuphela ye-GDP ephelele yezomnotho ezithuthuke kakhulu, unomthelela omkhulu ekwehleni kwamanani emali kanye nezindleko zokufakwayo kuyo yonke imikhakha ngenxa yokuba khona kwayo yonke indawo ekusetshenzisweni kwayo.

Izintengo zaseYurophu zikagesi negesi yemvelo manje sezisondele izikhathi ezingu-10 isilinganiso sazo somlando eminyakeni eyishumi eholela ku-2020. Ukuphakama okukhulu kwalo nyaka cishe kungenxa yempi yaseRussia e-Ukraine, nakuba yabhebhethekiswa ukushisa okukhulu nesomiso kuleli hlobo.Kuze kube ngu-2021, iYurophu (kuhlanganise ne-United Kingdom) ibithembele ekuthengisweni kweRussia cishe ngamaphesenti angu-40 egesi yayo yemvelo kanye nengxenye enkulu yezidingo zayo zikawoyela namalahle.Ezinyangeni ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwayo i-Ukraine, iRussia yaqala ukuxhaphaza izimakethe zamandla futhi yakhuphula amanani entengo yegesi yemvelo, ngokusho kwe-International Energy Agency.

Amandla ase-Europe abiza cishe amaphesenti ama-2 e-GDP ngezikhathi ezijwayelekile, kodwa anyuke afinyelela kumaphesenti ayi-12 ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo.Izindleko eziphezulu zalolu hlobo zisho ukuthi izimboni eziningi kulo lonke elaseYurophu zinciphisa ukusebenza kwazo noma zivalwa ngokuphelele.Abakhiqizi be-aluminium, abakhiqizi bakamanyolo, izincibilikisi zensimbi, nabakhi bezingilazi yibona abasengozini enkulu yentengo ephakeme yegesi yemvelo.Lokhu kusho ukuthi iYurophu ingalindela ukuwohloka okujulile komnotho eminyakeni ezayo, nakuba izilinganiso zezomnotho zokuthi zihluke kangakanani.

Ukucaca: IYurophu ngeke ibe mpofu.Futhi abantu bakhona ngeke baqhwande kulobu busika.Izinkomba zakuqala ziphakamisa ukuthi izwekazi lenza umsebenzi omuhle wokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwegesi yemvelo futhi ligcwalise amathangi alo okugcina ubusika.I-Germany ne-France ziye zafaka izinsiza ezinkulu ezweni ngalinye-ngezindleko ezinkulu-ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kubasebenzisi bamandla.

Kunalokho, ingozi yangempela izwekazi elibhekene nayo ukulahlekelwa ukuncintisana kwezomnotho ngenxa yokukhula kancane komnotho.Igesi eshibhile incike ekukholweni okungamanga ekuthembekeni kweRussia, futhi lokho kuhambile unomphela.Imboni izolungisa kancane kancane, kodwa lolo shintsho luzothatha isikhathi—futhi lungaholela ekuhlakazweni komnotho okubuhlungu.

Lezi zinkinga zezomnotho azihlangene nokushintshwa kwamandla ahlanzekile noma impendulo ephuthumayo ye-EU ekuphazamisekeni kwezimakethe okubangelwa impi yase-Ukraine.Esikhundleni salokho, zingalandelelwa ezinqumweni zesikhathi esidlule zaseYurophu zokuthuthukisa umlutha wezinto ezimbiwa phansi zaseRussia, ikakhulukazi igesi yemvelo.Yize izinto ezivuselelekayo ezifana nelanga nomoya zingagcina zithathele indawo amafutha ensalela ekuhlinzekeni ugesi oshibhile, azikwazi ukuthatha kalula igesi yemvelo ukuze isetshenziswe ezimbonini—ikakhulukazi njengoba i-imported liquified natural gas (LNG), okungenye evame ukuphakanyiswa esikhundleni segesi yamapayipi, ibiza kakhulu.Imizamo yosopolitiki abathile yokusola uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile ngenxa yesivunguvungu somnotho esiqhubekayo ayilungile.

Izindaba ezimbi zase-Europe zihlanganisa ukuthambekela okukhona ngaphambili: Kusukela ngo-2008, isabelo se-EU somnotho womhlaba sehlile.Nakuba i-United States yalulama eKuwohlokeni Okukhulu Komnotho ngokushesha, umnotho waseYurophu wadonsa kanzima kakhulu.Abanye babo kwathatha iminyaka ukuthi bakhule bafinyelele emazingeni angaphambi kwenhlekelele.Khonamanjalo, umnotho wase-Asia ubuqhubeka nokukhula ngezinga elimangalisayo, eliholwa umnotho omkhulu waseChina.

Phakathi kuka-2009 no-2020, izinga lokukhula lonyaka le-GDP ye-EU lenze isilinganiso samaphesenti angu-0.48 kuphela, ngokusho kweBhange Lomhlaba.Izinga lokukhula lase-US ngesikhathi esifanayo lalicishe liphindwe kathathu, libe yisilinganiso samaphesenti angu-1.38 ngonyaka.Futhi iChina yakhula ngesivinini esingamaphesenti angama-7.36 ngonyaka ngesikhathi esifanayo.Umphumela uwukuthi, ngenkathi isabelo se-EU se-GDP yomhlaba sasisikhulu kunase-United States ne-China ngo-2009, manje isiphansi kakhulu kokuthathu.

Muva nje ngo-2005, i-EU ibambe cishe amaphesenti angama-20 e-GDP yomhlaba.Izoba yingxenye yaleyo mali ekuqaleni kweminyaka yo-2030 uma umnotho we-EU uncipha ngamaphesenti ama-3 ngo-2023 nango-2024 bese uqala kabusha izinga lokukhula kobhubhane lwangaphambi kobhubhane ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngonyaka kuyilapho wonke umhlaba ukhula ngamaphesenti amathathu ( isilinganiso somhlaba wonke sangaphambi kobhubhane).Uma ubusika bango-2023 bubanda futhi ukuwohloka komnotho okuzayo kukhombisa ukuthi kubi kakhulu, isabelo se-Europe se-GDP yomhlaba singase sehle ngokushesha okukhulu.

Okubi nakakhulu, iYurophu isalele emuva kakhulu kwamanye amandla ngokwamandla ezempi.Amazwe aseYurophu asekuphele amashumi eminyaka eqile ekusetshenzisweni kwezempi futhi awakwazi ukukuvala kalula lokhu kuntuleka kokutshala imali.Noma yikuphi ukusetshenziswa kwezempi kwase-Europe manje—ukuvala isikhathi esilahlekile—kuza ngezindleko zamathuba kwezinye izingxenye zomnotho, okungase kudale ukudonseka okuqhubekayo ekukhuleni nasekuphoqeni izinqumo ezibuhlungu mayelana nokuncishiswa kwemali yomphakathi.

Isimo saseRussia sibi kakhulu kunese-EU.Kuliqiniso, izwe lisangenisa imali enkulu ngokuthengiswa kwalo kwamanye amazwe kawoyela negesi, ikakhulukazi e-Asia.Nokho, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imboni kawoyela negesi yaseRussia ingase yehle—ngisho nangemva kokuphela kwempi e-Ukraine.Omunye umnotho waseRussia udonsa kanzima, kanti unswinyo lwaseNtshonalanga luzophuca umkhakha wezamandla wezwe ulwazi lwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezimali zokutshalwa kwezimali eziyidinga kakhulu.

Manje njengoba iYurophu isilahlekelwe ukholo eRussia njengomnikezeli wezamandla, iqhinga elisebenzayo laseRussia kuphela ukudayisa amandla ayo kumakhasimende ase-Asia.Ngokujabulisayo, i-Asia ineminotho eminingi ekhulayo.Ngokudabukisayo i-Russia, cishe yonke inethiwekhi yayo yamapayipi nengqalasizinda yamandla yakhelwe ukuthunyelwa e-Europe futhi ayikwazi ukujikela empumalanga kalula.Kuzothatha iminyaka nezigidigidi zamaRandi ukuthi iMoscow iqondise kabusha ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamandla ngaphandle—futhi kungenzeka ithole ukuthi ingagxila kuphela emigomeni yezezimali yaseBeijing.Ukuncika komkhakha wezamandla eShayina kungenzeka kudlulele kwezombusazwe ezibanzi, ubudlelwano lapho iRussia izithola idlala indima ekhulayo.Ukuvuma kukaMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin ngoSepthemba 15 ukuthi uzakwabo waseShayina, u-Xi Jinping, “wayenemibuzo nokukhathazeka” ngempi yase-Ukraine kukhomba ukwehlukana kwamandla osuvele ukhona phakathi kweBeijing neMoscow.

 

Ukushoda kokudla—kanye namanani aphezulu alokho okutholakalayo—kungase kubangele inkinga enkulu nakakhulu kulezi zifunda ngaphezu kwamandla.Impi yase-Ukraine yonakalise ukuvuna nezindlela zokuhamba zikakolweni omkhulu nokunye okusanhlamvu.Abathengisi bokudla abakhulu njenge-Egypt banesizathu sokukhathazeka ngezinxushunxushu zezombusazwe ezivame ukuhambisana nokukhuphuka kwezindleko zokudla.

Iphuzu eliyinhloko lezombangazwe zomhlaba ukuthi sibheke emhlabeni lapho iChina ne-United States kuyimibuso emikhulu yomhlaba.Ukuhlukaniswa kweYurophu ezindabeni zomhlaba kuzolimaza izintshisekelo zaseMelika.I-Europe—ingxenye enkulu—intando yeningi, i-capitalist, futhi izibophezele kumalungelo abantu kanye nokuhleleka kwamazwe ngamazwe okusekelwe emithethweni.I-EU iphinde yahola umhlaba emithethweni ephathelene nokuphepha, ubumfihlo bedatha, kanye nemvelo, iphoqa izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe ukuthi zithuthukise ukuziphatha kwazo emhlabeni wonke ukuze zifane nezindinganiso zaseYurophu.Ukubekwa eceleni kweRussia kungase kubonakale kukuhle kakhulu ezithakazelweni zase-US, kodwa kunobungozi bokuthi uPutin (noma lowo ozongena esikhundleni sakhe) angasabela ekulahlekelweni kwesithunzi nokuhlonishwa kwezwe ngokugqashuka ngezindlela ezilimazayo—mhlawumbe neziyinhlekelele.

Njengoba i-Europe izabalaza ukusimamisa umnotho wayo, i-United States kufanele iwusekele uma kungenzeka, okuhlanganisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ezinye zezinsiza zayo zamandla, njenge-LNG.Lokhu kungase kube lula ukukusho kunokukwenza: Abantu baseMelika abakavuki ngokugcwele izindleko zabo zamandla ezikhuphukayo.Izintengo zegesi yemvelo e-United States ziphindeke kathathu kulo nyaka futhi zingakhuphuka njengoba izinkampani zase-US zizama ukufinyelela izimakethe ezinenzuzo enkulu yokuthekelisa kwe-LNG eYurophu nase-Asia.Uma amanani kagesi enyuka ngokuqhubekayo, osopolitiki base-US bazoba ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokukhawulela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukuze kulondolozwe ukutholakala kwamandla kagesi eNyakatho Melika.

Njengoba ibhekene neYurophu ebuthaka, abenzi benqubomgomo base-US bazofuna ukuhlakulela umbuthano obanzi wabalingani bezomnotho abanomqondo ofanayo ezinhlanganweni zamazwe ngamazwe njengeNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene, iWorld Trade Organization, kanye ne-International Monetary Fund.Lokhu kungasho ukuthandana okukhulu kwamazwe aphakathi njenge-India, Brazil, ne-Indonesia.Noma kunjalo, kubonakala sengathi iYurophu inzima ukuyishintsha.I-United States isizuze amashumi eminyaka ngezintshisakalo zezomnotho ezabiwe kanye nokuqondana nezwekazi.Ngokwezinga ukwehla komnotho wase-Europe manje, i-United States izobhekana nokumelana nombono wayo wohlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe oluvuna intando yeningi.