1. Izinkampani zokugcina ugesi eziphezulu ziyaqina

Ngokwezici zokuthuthukiswa kwemboni yokugcina amandla, kuye kwasungulwa iphethini yokuthuthukiswa, ngamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate njengendlela eyinhloko, amabhethri e-sodium-ion asebenza ngokushesha njengengxenye esikhundleni, kanye nemizila ehlukahlukene yamabhethri ehambisanayo. Njengoba isidingo sokugcinwa kwezindawo zokuhlala kanye nezindawo ezinkulu sikhula, ukuvuthwa kweibhethri lokugcina amandla ubuchwepheshe buzothuthukiswa kakhulu, futhi izindleko zebhethri kulindeleke ukuthi zehle. Imboni yamabhethri okugcina amandla iyonke igxile kakhulu, kanti amabhizinisi ahamba phambili athatha isabelo esikhulu semakethe.

2. Ama-inverter okugcina amandla akhula ngokushesha

Njengamanje, inani lokuthunyelwa kwama-inverter liyaqhubeka nokukhula ngokushesha, kanti ama-inverter amancane abiza ingxenye enkulu. I-inverter midstream ihlinzeka kakhulu ngama-inverter okugcina amandla avumelaniswe nezimo ezahlukahlukene zohlelo lokusebenza, kodwa akekho umholi wemakethe ophelele. Ngokukhululwa kwesitoreji samandla esikhulu eShayina kanye nokuvulwa kwemakethe yokugcina amandla enkulu phesheya kwezilwandle, i-isitoreji samandla ibhizinisi le-inverter kulindeleke ukuthi lingene esikhathini esisheshayo.

3. Ukupholisa isitoreji samandla kukhula kancane kancane

Ngokuthuthuka okuqhubekayo kwemakethe yokugcina amandla kagesi, imakethe yokulawula izinga lokushisa nayo ikhule kakhulu. Esikhathini esizayo, ngenani elikhulayo lezinhlelo zokugcina amandla ezinamandla aphezulu nezisezingeni eliphezulu, izinzuzo zezinhlelo zokupholisa uketshezi ezinokusebenza kahle kokushabalalisa ukushisa okuphezulu kanye nesivinini esisheshayo zizobonakala kakhulu, zisheshise ukungena. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinhlelo zokupholisa umoya, izinhlelo zokupholisa uketshezi zinikeza impilo yebhethri eqhubekayo, ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu, kanye nokulawula izinga lokushisa okunembile. Kubikezelwa ukuthi ngo-2025, izinga lokungena kwezinhlelo zokupholisa uketshezi lizofinyelela ku-45%.

4. Ukuxhumana phakathi kokugcina impahla ekhaya langaphandle, ukugcina impahla enkulu yasekhaya.

Izinhlelo zokugcina amandla zihlukaniswe ngezinhlelo zokusebenza zangaphambili kwemitha kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza ngemuva kwemitha. Izinhlelo zokusebenza zangaphambili kwemitha zisakazeke kakhulu, kanti iShayina, i-United States, kanye neYurophu zigxile kakhulu emabhizinisini angaphambili kwemitha. EShayina, izinhlelo zokusebenza zangaphambili kwemitha zaba ngu-76% wesilinganiso sokufakwa kwesitoreji samandla sasekhaya ngo-2021. Amabhizinisi angemuva kwemitha ayahlukahluka ngokugxila phakathi kwamazwe, ngesilinganiso sokungena esingu-10% sesitoreji esikhulu eShayina kanye no-5% sesitoreji sezindlu. Izimakethe zaphesheya zigxile kakhulu kwisitoreji sezindlu. Ngo-2021, amandla afakiwe okugcina amandla ezindlu e-United States akhuphuke ngo-67%, kuyilapho isitoreji samandla sezentengiselwano nesezimboni sehle ngo-24%.

5. Ukuhlaziywa Kwemakethe Yesitoreji Samandla

Eminyakeni yamuva nje, kuye kwenziwa intuthuko enkulu kubuchwepheshe obusha bokugcina amandla njengamabhethri e-lithium-ion, amabhethri okugeleza, amabhethri e-sodium-ion, isitoreji samandla omoya ocindezelwe, kanye nesitoreji samandla adonsela phansi. Imboni yokugcina amandla yasekhaya eShayina isingene esigabeni sentuthuko ehlukahlukene futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ithathe isikhundla esiphambili emhlabeni jikelele esikhathini esizayo.

5.1 Amabhethri okugcina amandla

Ngokuphathelene namabhethri okugcina amandla, umthamo wokufakwa kwamabhethri okugcina amandla emhlabeni jikelele kanye nezinga lokukhula kuye kwanda unyaka nonyaka, kanye nesidingo esikhulu emakethe yamabhethri okugcina amandla emhlabeni jikelele. Ukukhishwa kwamabhethri e-lithium okugcina amandla e-China kuye kwanda njalo, futhi izindleko zamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate nge-kilowatt-hora kulindeleke ukuthi zehle. Iqhutshwa yisiqondiso senqubomgomo kanye nokubuyekezwa kobuchwepheshe bemboni, imakethe engezansi yamabhethri okugcina amandla inamandla amakhulu okuthuthukiswa kanye nesidingo esibanzi, okuqhuba ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samabhethri okugcina amandla.

5.2 Izinhlelo Zokuguqula Amandla

Ngokuphathelene ne-PCS (Power Conversion Systems), umkhuba womhlaba wonke uqonde ekuhlanganisweni kwama-inverter e-photovoltaic kanye ne-energy storage, ahlangana kakhulu nama-inverter aboshwe ngegridi yokuhlala. Ama-inverter e-energy storage anenani eliphakeme kakhulu, futhi izinga lokungena kwama-microinverter emakethe esatshalaliswa kulindeleke ukuthi liqhubeke nokuthuthuka. Esikhathini esizayo, njengoba isilinganiso sezilungiselelo zokugcina amandla sanda, imboni ye-PCS izongena esigabeni sokukhula okusheshayo.

5.3 Ukulawula izinga lokushisa lokugcina amandla

Ngokuphathelene nokulawula izinga lokushisa lokugcina amandla, ukukhula okuphezulu kwezinhlelo zokugcina amandla kagesi kuholela ekuthuthukisweni okusheshayo kokulawulwa kwezinga lokushisa lokugcina amandla. Ngo-2025, isilinganiso semakethe yokulawula izinga lokushisa lokugcina amandla kagesi kagesi eShayina kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyelele kuma-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.28-4.08, ngesilinganiso sokukhula kwenhlanganisela yonyaka esimaphakathi esingu-77% kanye no-91% kusukela ngo-2022 kuya ku-2025. Esikhathini esizayo, njengoba izinhlelo zokusebenza zokugcina amandla ezinamandla aphezulu kanye nezinga eliphezulu zanda, izidingo eziphakeme zizobekwa ekulawulweni kwezinga lokushisa. Ukupholisa uketshezi, njengesixazululo sobuchwepheshe sesikhathi esiphakathi kuya kweside, kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphule kancane kancane izinga lokungena emakethe, ngesabelo semakethe esingu-45% esibikezelwe ngo-2025.

5.4 Ukuvikelwa komlilo kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla

Ngokuphathelene nokuvikelwa komlilo kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla, amabhizinisi okugcina amandla ahamba phambili eShayina emkhakheni wezinhlelo zokuvikela umlilo anendawo ebalulekile yokuthuthukisa isabelo semakethe. Njengamanje, ukuvikelwa komlilo kubala cishe u-3% wezindleko zesistimu yokugcina amandla. Njengoba ingxenye ephezulu yamandla omoya kanye nelanga exhunywe kugridi, izinga lokusetshenziswa kokugcinwa kwamandla lizokhula ngokushesha, okuholela ekudingweni okukhulu kokuvikelwa komlilo kanye nokwenyuka okuhambisanayo kwengxenye yezindleko zokuvikela umlilo.

I-China igxile kakhulu ekugcinweni kwamandla amakhulu, kuyilapho izimakethe zaphesheya zigxila ekugcinweni kwamandla ezindlu. Ngo-2021, ingxenye yokugcina amandla ohlangothini lomsebenzisi endaweni yokugcina amandla entsha yase-China ifinyelele ku-24%, okugqamisa ukubaluleka kwayo. Ngokuphathelene nezimo ezithile zokusetshenziswa, imikhakha yezentengiselwano nezimboni zasekhaya kanye namapaki ezimboni aqukethe iningi, ngesabelo esihlanganisiwe esingaphezu kuka-80%, okwenza kube yizicelo eziyinhloko zokugcina amandla ohlangothini lomsebenzisi.